Us economic recessions dating
The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part.
In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period.
A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.
For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.
The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data.
For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at:https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECMThe second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e.
From the nineteenth century to the present, it distinguishes between three types of events: major recessions, bank panics, and periods of bank failures.
I have tried to integrate the best of the approaches of both economists and historians, using them to cross check each other.
So I have created a revised chronology in the table below.
We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods.
All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations.
Equally important, it distinguishes between bank panics and periods of significant numbers of bank failures.
These two categories are often confused or conflated, and yet this distinction is critical.